At first glance, not that much seems to have changed in terms of new car sales: the Toyota HiLux was comfortably the best-selling new car in Australia in October, with 5,954 registrations, and the Ford Ranger sits atop the year-to-date (YTD) sales charts (42,699).
After a big month, the HiLux is breathing down its neck in second place (42,570). One of the two powerhouse utes has been the best-selling car nationally since 2016.
Dig a little deeper, though, and the cracks start to show. So far this year, the Ranger and HiLux’s annual sales have gone backwards by 8.1% and 5.9%, respectively. Additionally, in 2025, only 20.4% and 24.4% of new vehicle sales of each ute went to private buyers.
Tesla’s Model Y has overtaken the Toyota RAV4 in terms of SUV sales and remains in the hunt to take out the overall crown (39,035, +117.2%).
Other cheaper newcomers have entered the chat, too, with the BYD Sealion 7 (22,488) and Chery Tiggo 4 (22,043) currently occupying spots in the top ten. There’s no doubt that the landscape is changing for new cars in Australia.
Of course, we’ve seen a similar trend before. The Holden Commodore ruled the roost for 15 years, but took only seven years from its last crown in 2010 to cease production. Are our popular 4WDs heading in the same direction?
The rise and fall of the Holden Commodore
The Commodore was Australia’s best-selling car each year from 1996 to 2010. Holden sold more than 1 million of them in those years alone.
However, the slide had begun well before it was officially knocked off its perch. The Commodore sold 86,996 cars in 2005; by 2010, that number had dwindled to 45,956. Even though it was still the country’s best-selling car, Holden couldn’t stop the bleeding.
It shut its Elizabeth factory on 20 October 2017, almost seven years after the Commodore’s last sales crown. YTD sales of the imported replacement had dropped to just 5,417 by the end of November 2019, down 37% on the previous year, with its axing finally announced the next month.
The Commodore didn’t lose to a better sedan. Buyers moved to SUVs and utes in their droves; indeed, SUV and light commercial vehicle segments have made up 83.8% of new car sales nationally so far in 2026 (light commercial vehicle numbers also include vans and other commercial models).
It wasn’t the only casualty, though. The Ford Falcon ended production in October 2016, the Toyota Aurion followed in 2017, while the Mitsubishi 380 was long gone.
Passenger cars as a whole have fallen from 515,683 sales and a 44.6% market share in 2014 to 157,484 and just 13.0% in 2025.
Is the pattern repeating for 4WDs in Australia?
This time, buyers aren’t swapping one body style for another: they’re changing what powers the car.
Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) made up 23.1% of new car sales in October, up from 7.3% a year earlier. Over the same month, petrol sales fell 35.9% and diesel sales fell 14.7%.
Tesla is the biggest winner, having delivered 45,755 vehicles in Australia to the end of October. That’s up 94.1% on the same period last year, according to the Electric Vehicle Council (EVC).
China supplied 35.5% of all vehicles sold for the month, most of which are on sale at prices similar to (or below) those of their more established competitors.
BYD was the country’s second-biggest brand in October with 10,025 sales, behind only Toyota, and remains second in YTD sales. MG (4,676), GWM (4,417), Geely (4,365) and Chery (4,317) all finished in the top ten for monthly vehicle sales.
You need only look at the names of members of the old guard and where they are now. Mazda has typically been a distant second to Toyota in recent years, but was fifth in October (5,730) and didn’t have a model in the top ten.
Hyundai finished seventh for the month (4,571), while Isuzu Ute (2,422), Mitsubishi (2,356), Nissan (1,895), Subaru (1,701) and Volkswagen (1,283) all failed to make the top ten.
Despite their dominance, the challenge to 4WDs isn’t solely coming from SUVs; even models from within their own segment are making a statement. The BYD Shark 6, a plug-in hybrid ute, was the best-selling ute among private buyers in 2025, recording 15,564 sales last year to sit well ahead of the HiLux’s 12,529.
Fuel, cost-of-living crises fast-track changing of the guard
Perhaps the biggest reason why Aussies are turning towards the next generation of electric cars is the skyrocketing cost of fuel. The average retail price of petrol (184.8c/L) and diesel (206.4c/L) nationally across the last financial year were each the second-highest mark in the last 20 years.
Fuel is now a major driver of inflation, with automotive fuel prices rising 23.6% in the year to September to help push annual CPI to 4.3%.
Transport was the second-largest contributor to annual inflation, with one report estimating the fuel shock has cost Australians more than $500 per person since March.
Savvy’s analysis of hybrid, electric and petrol cars from earlier this year found that it costs close to $700 more to refuel a diesel Ranger XL than a KGM Musso EV, based on 12,000km driven annually.
The differential was even greater between a petrol Mitsubishi Outlander ES 2WD and Tesla Model Y RWD, totalling over $1,000 more each year.
With the conflict in the Middle East continuing to roll on, the uncertainty surrounding when, or even if, fuel prices will come down is enough to make Aussies start looking elsewhere. The question remains: is it an existential threat to the traditional 4WD?
